How to survive a tech bubble

Everyone is speculating recently, “Are we in a tech bubble?” Instagram, Evernote, and the upcoming Facebook IPO are at center stage. So much talk of “bubbles” is going on in the startup scene you’d think we were all manufacturing chewing gum. Well, I’m bored. In fact I’m getting really bored of this bubble conversation. Are you bored, too? If so, keep reading. Because I have the magical tech bubble elixir.
But first, a word from our sponsors:
“Who cares if we’re in a f*%#&**! bubble??”
This is not to say I don’t want to know what my peers are thinking. As entrepreneurs, we must be the first to know when economic cycles are changing. And I appreciate every single “Are we in a bubble?” article I’ve read this month. (Thanks, blogosphere!) So I’m not advocating to bury your head in sand.
But here’s what I am advocating: don’t let it affect you. As you’ll learn in a minute: when your startup gets back-to-basics, the economic climate doesn’t really matter. In a word, you’ll be bubbleproof.
“How to Survive a Tech Bubble”
Without any further ado, here is your lifejacket for the incredibly-likely-upcoming-bubble-bursting event that will be taking place:
- Build a timeless product. If you’re focused on what’s hot today or what’s going to be hot tomorrow, your heart is in the wrong place. Facebook, for example, is a timeless product. Making the web a social place so businesses and advertisers can target real people isn’t a passing fad. It’s timeless.
- Build a valuable product. This is all about your ingredients costing less than you charge for a meal. That is the measure of the value you’re creating. Ideally, you want the largest spread possible. Look at the iPhone. It takes an estimated $203 to make, and it retails for $749. A ton of value is created for every iPhone that runs off the production line. The spread from $203 to $749 is huge.
- Build strong business fundamentals. Team, cash flow, advisors, public relations, user experience… just to name a few. For you finance nerds out there: instead of building a business on technical analysis of the market (which begets speculation, a.k.a. gambling), build a business based on fundamental analysis (a real investment).
- Earn revenue. I don’t care whether you start with a free version, or if you charge for your first version. But do charge for your product, as soon as possible, or get revenue in some way (advertising, etc.). Building a company that isn’t focused on earning money ASAP is bubbletalk. A non-paying user base and an acquisition offer isn’t earning money, it’s speculation. Compare this to paying users or paying advertisers, which is return-on-investment.
- Don’t let fads dominate your decision making. Many unexperienced entrepreneurs I meet chase the latest fads without realizing they’re doing it, their sailboats twisting around as the winds change direction. And when talk of a bubble comes along, they start freaking out. Successful entrepreneurs I know never seem to care what the latest fads are.
- Less “startup,” more “business.” The startup identity has gotten a little out of control. It implies following the fad du jour, and focusing on all sorts of things besides building a product for which people will pay money. (I know, I know… it’s not nearly as sexy…) I wouldn’t ever consider what I do a startup. I create businesses. When you get out of the “we’re a startup” mindset, you can get back to basic business fundamentals, you will be successful. If you read DHH or watch him speak, he totally hits the nail on the head in this department.
Bubble, Boom, Bust, Bull, or Bear
When you get back to the basics, it doesn’t matter what is going on around you: bubble, boom, bust, bull, or bear. Your business is a 100-ton yacht, not a sailboat whose rudder is broken. Both ships feel the crashing waves of a storm, but only one ends up miles away, in pieces.
Warren Buffet’s mentor Benjamin Graham has a great way of explaining this. He refers to market fluctuations as Mr. Market, a highly emotional and volatile character who is swayed by what everyone else is doing. When people are yelling “Sell, Sell, Sell,” Mr. Market is feverishly selling. And when gold hits $1500, he buys as much as he can afford because, “Duh! Gold is doing really well!” Obviously you can see the idiocy in this.
I think bubbletalk is the same kind of idiocy. Instead, build your business on fundamentals. I don’t particularly care whether we’re in a bubble, boom, bust, bull, or bear market. Again — it’s not that I don’t want to know about a bubble — it’s that I don’t let it control me. My business is doing great regardless of what happens outside my purview.
In Conclusion
Put your bubblegum on the bedpost. Don’t strategize based on bubbletalk. Forget the fad du jour, that’s for speculators. Be an investor. Boring as it may be: get back to the basics, grasshopper.
20 Kudos